Abstract
This dissertation critically examines the contemporary utility of cover letters in employee selection, specifically evaluating their predictive validity for job performance and their role as potential barriers to entry in modern recruitment processes. Through a comprehensive synthesis of peer-reviewed literature, this study analyses empirical evidence concerning the correlation between cover letter content and subsequent job success, the impact of artificial intelligence on signal value, and the documented discriminatory effects associated with unstructured application materials. Findings reveal that cover letters demonstrate weak predictive validity for job performance, with correlations rarely exceeding r = 0.10. Furthermore, the proliferation of generative artificial intelligence tools has substantially diminished the informational value of cover letters, reducing the correlation between tailoring efforts and hiring outcomes by up to 79 per cent. Evidence also indicates that cover letters disproportionately disadvantage candidates from marginalised groups, including those with disabilities and those lacking access to elite language training. This dissertation concludes that organisations should reconsider their reliance on cover letters and instead prioritise structured, job-related assessments that offer superior predictive validity whilst minimising discriminatory potential.
Introduction
The cover letter has long occupied a prominent position within recruitment practices across diverse industries and geographical contexts. Traditionally conceptualised as a mechanism through which applicants demonstrate their motivation, communication competence, and suitability for specific roles, cover letters have been regarded as essential supplements to curricula vitae in the employment application process. However, the empirical foundation supporting their continued use has remained remarkably thin, prompting growing scholarly attention to the validity and fairness of this ubiquitous selection tool.
The importance of examining cover letters extends beyond mere procedural interest in human resource management. Selection methods directly influence organisational performance, employee wellbeing, and broader patterns of social mobility and inequality. When selection tools lack predictive validity or introduce systematic biases, the consequences affect not only hiring organisations but also the millions of job seekers who invest considerable time and effort in preparing application materials. The stakes are particularly high for candidates from disadvantaged backgrounds, who may face additional barriers when required to produce polished, professionally crafted cover letters without access to the cultural capital and resources that such documents often demand.
The contemporary relevance of this inquiry has intensified considerably with the emergence of generative artificial intelligence technologies capable of producing sophisticated, contextually appropriate cover letters within seconds. These technological developments fundamentally challenge traditional assumptions about what cover letters signal regarding applicant effort, ability, and fit. If artificial intelligence can readily generate compelling application materials, the informational value that employers have historically derived from cover letters may be substantially or entirely eroded.
This dissertation addresses these concerns through a rigorous examination of the scholarly literature on cover letter validity, the evolving landscape of application screening in the age of artificial intelligence, and the documented impacts of cover letter requirements on candidate pools. By synthesising evidence from multiple disciplinary perspectives, including industrial-organisational psychology, economics, and critical management studies, this analysis provides a comprehensive evaluation of whether cover letters continue to serve their intended purposes or whether they have become primarily obstacles that impede efficient and equitable hiring.
Aim and objectives
The overarching aim of this dissertation is to critically evaluate the predictive validity of cover letters for job performance and to assess their contemporary function as potential barriers to entry within recruitment processes.
To achieve this aim, the following specific objectives guide the investigation:
1. To examine the empirical evidence concerning the correlation between cover letter content and subsequent job performance outcomes.
2. To analyse the impact of artificial intelligence technologies on the signal value and informational utility of cover letters in hiring decisions.
3. To evaluate the extent to which cover letter requirements create barriers and introduce bias against candidates from marginalised or disadvantaged groups.
4. To synthesise findings and provide evidence-based recommendations for organisational recruitment practices regarding the appropriate use of cover letters.
Methodology
This dissertation employs a literature synthesis methodology, drawing upon peer-reviewed academic sources to construct a comprehensive analysis of the research question. Literature synthesis represents an appropriate methodological approach when the objective involves consolidating existing knowledge across multiple studies to identify patterns, inconsistencies, and gaps in understanding (Snyder, 2019).
The synthesis process began with systematic identification of relevant scholarly works addressing cover letter validity, application screening practices, and discrimination in hiring. Sources were identified through academic databases, with particular attention to empirical studies employing field experiments, longitudinal analyses, and large-scale correlational designs. Selection criteria prioritised peer-reviewed publications in established journals within industrial-organisational psychology, human resource management, and labour economics.
The analytical framework organised the literature into three thematic categories aligned with the stated objectives: predictive validity evidence, technological disruption of signal value, and barriers and bias. Within each category, studies were critically appraised regarding their methodological rigour, sample characteristics, and generalisability of findings. Where studies employed different methodological approaches or examined distinct populations, comparative analysis enabled identification of convergent findings and remaining uncertainties.
This methodological approach acknowledges certain limitations inherent in literature synthesis. The analysis depends upon the availability and quality of existing research, and publication bias may affect the representation of findings in the scholarly record. Nevertheless, the synthesis methodology enables integration of evidence across multiple contexts and analytical approaches, providing a robust foundation for addressing the research objectives.
Literature review
Historical context and theoretical foundations
Cover letters emerged as standard components of job applications during the twentieth century, reflecting broader professionalisation of human resource management practices. The theoretical rationale supporting cover letter use draws upon several conceptual frameworks. Signalling theory suggests that cover letters provide mechanisms through which applicants can credibly communicate unobservable qualities such as motivation, written communication ability, and organisational fit (Spence, 1973). Human capital theory positions cover letters as opportunities for candidates to convey their accumulated skills and knowledge in contextualised form. Person-organisation fit perspectives emphasise the potential for cover letters to reveal alignment between applicant values and organisational culture.
Despite these theoretical justifications, the empirical examination of cover letter validity has remained surprisingly limited relative to research on other selection methods. Schmidt and Hunter’s (1998) influential meta-analysis of selection method validity did not separately examine cover letters, instead subsuming them within broader categories of unstructured application materials. This omission reflects the historical tendency to treat cover letters as ancillary documents rather than distinct predictors warranting independent validation.
Predictive validity for job performance
The evidence concerning cover letter predictive validity presents a consistent picture of weak or negligible correlations with subsequent job performance. Brandt and Herzberg (2020) conducted a field study examining 581 authentic job applications in Germany, employing the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count programme to analyse textual features of both cover letters and curricula vitae. Their findings indicated that whilst certain linguistic markers predicted receiving job offers, effect sizes were small and numerous hypothesised predictors failed to demonstrate reliable validity. This study represents one of few investigations to examine actual hiring outcomes rather than laboratory ratings of application quality.
Risavy and colleagues (2022) provided a comprehensive review of resume and cover letter validity within their broader analysis of application screening practices. Their synthesis found that typical signals contained within these documents, including years of experience and educational credentials, correlate with job performance at approximately r = 0.07 to r = 0.10. These correlations explain roughly 0.5 to 1 per cent of variance in subsequent performance, representing validity coefficients substantially below those achieved by structured interviews, work samples, or cognitive ability assessments.
The limited validity of cover letters becomes particularly apparent when compared against alternative selection methods. Meta-analytic evidence consistently demonstrates that structured application forms and biodata instruments achieve superior prediction whilst enabling standardised evaluation (Risavy et al., 2022). The unstructured format of traditional cover letters permits wide variation in content, length, and presentation, complicating comparability across applicants and potentially introducing systematic measurement error.
Parallel evidence from academic admissions contexts reinforces concerns about personal statement validity. Research examining personal statements, which serve analogous functions to cover letters in educational selection, demonstrates low validity and no incremental predictive contribution beyond information available from other application components (Risavy et al., 2022). This finding suggests that the open-ended, narrative format characteristic of cover letters may inherently limit their predictive utility regardless of the specific domain of application.
Impact of artificial intelligence on signal value
The emergence of sophisticated generative artificial intelligence tools has fundamentally altered the information economics of cover letters. Cui, Dias and Ye (2025) examined this transformation through analysis of hiring outcomes on a large online labour platform before and after the introduction of artificial intelligence cover letter assistance. Their findings revealed that whilst access to artificial intelligence tools increased callback rates for users, the technology substantially diminished the informational signal conveyed by cover letters.
Specifically, the correlation between cover letter tailoring and callback rates decreased by approximately 50 per cent following artificial intelligence availability, whilst the correlation between tailoring and actual job offers declined by approximately 79 per cent (Cui, Dias and Ye, 2025). These dramatic reductions indicate that employers can no longer reliably distinguish between candidates who invested substantial effort in crafting personalised applications and those who employed artificial intelligence to generate comparable documents with minimal individual input.
The implications of these findings extend beyond simple validity concerns to questions about the fundamental function of cover letters in hiring. If the distinguishing value of a well-crafted cover letter arose primarily from its signalling of applicant effort, motivation, or communication skill, artificial intelligence generation eliminates these signals by enabling all applicants to produce professionally polished materials regardless of underlying abilities.
Employers appear to recognise this signal degradation and have responded accordingly. Evidence indicates that hiring decision-makers have shifted evaluation weight toward harder-to-fake signals such as documented work history, verified credentials, and platform-based reviews of previous performance (Cui, Dias and Ye, 2025). This behavioural adaptation suggests practical acknowledgment that cover letters no longer provide reliable differentiation among applicants.
The technological transformation of cover letter utility raises important questions for organisations continuing to require these documents. If cover letters no longer serve their historical signalling function, their persistence in application requirements may reflect institutional inertia rather than evidence-based practice. Alternatively, organisations may maintain cover letter requirements for purposes other than prediction, including as screening mechanisms to reduce applicant pools or as tests of compliance with application instructions.
Barriers and discriminatory effects
Beyond validity concerns, substantial evidence documents the potential for cover letter requirements to create barriers and introduce discrimination into hiring processes. The unstructured nature of cover letters invites evaluation based on non-job-related characteristics, including demographic attributes inferred from names, photographs, or writing style (Risavy et al., 2022). Such inferences enable, whether consciously or unconsciously, discrimination against protected groups.
Disability disclosure represents a particularly well-documented source of cover letter discrimination. Ameri and colleagues (2015) conducted a large-scale field experiment examining employer responses to applications from candidates with disabilities. Their methodology involved submitting matched applications with equivalent qualifications, varying only the presence of disability disclosure within cover letters. Results demonstrated that applications disclosing disabilities received 26 per cent fewer positive employer responses despite presenting identical expected productivity characteristics. This finding indicates that cover letters serve not merely as neutral information transmission mechanisms but as vehicles through which stigmatised identities become visible to evaluators and trigger discriminatory responses.
The barriers created by cover letter requirements extend beyond explicit discrimination to encompass structural disadvantages affecting candidates from less privileged backgrounds. Kedia (2020) examined cover letters through the lens of economic and gender analysis, arguing that expectations for polished, professionally sophisticated cover letters disadvantage candidates lacking access to elite language training and soft skills development. Applicants from working-class backgrounds, those educated in under-resourced institutions, and those from non-dominant linguistic communities may lack the cultural capital necessary to produce cover letters meeting evaluator expectations, regardless of their actual job-relevant abilities.
Qualitative research reinforces these concerns. Odeh and colleagues (2023) assessed cover letter and curriculum vitae writing competencies among pharmacy graduates, finding substantial variation in skills that correlated with educational access rather than professional capability. Mohamad and colleagues (2024) similarly identified cover letter preparation as a significant challenge for technical and vocational education graduates seeking employment, with deficits reflecting structural educational inequalities rather than individual inadequacies.
The intersection of cover letter barriers with multiple dimensions of inequality amplifies their exclusionary effects. Gender, class, caste, and ethnicity each shape access to the resources and training that enable production of valued application materials (Kedia, 2020). Consequently, cover letter requirements may systematically filter applicant pools in ways that reproduce existing social hierarchies whilst appearing to employ neutral, merit-based selection criteria.
Discussion
The evidence synthesised in this dissertation presents a consistent and concerning picture of cover letter utility in contemporary hiring. Across multiple methodological approaches, research contexts, and analytical frameworks, findings converge on the conclusion that cover letters demonstrate weak predictive validity for job performance whilst simultaneously creating barriers that disproportionately affect marginalised candidates.
Addressing the predictive validity question
The first objective of this dissertation concerned empirical evidence for cover letter predictive validity. The evidence clearly indicates that cover letters offer limited ability to forecast subsequent job performance. Correlations in the range of r = 0.07 to r = 0.10 translate to practical prediction that barely exceeds chance levels (Risavy et al., 2022). This finding challenges the common assumption that cover letters provide meaningful differentiation among candidates likely to succeed in positions.
Several factors may explain this validity limitation. Cover letters permit substantial content variation, preventing standardised comparison across applicants. The skills required to produce compelling cover letters may differ substantially from skills required for job performance in most occupations. Additionally, the social desirability inherent in application contexts likely inflates positive self-presentation whilst masking potentially relevant information about limitations or weaknesses.
The comparison with more structured selection methods proves instructive. Research consistently demonstrates that structured interviews, work sample tests, and job knowledge assessments achieve substantially higher validity coefficients (Schmidt and Hunter, 1998). These methods constrain response variation, enabling systematic evaluation against job-relevant criteria. The persistence of cover letter requirements despite evidence favouring alternatives suggests that organisational hiring practices may resist evidence-based reform.
Technological disruption and signal erosion
The second objective addressed artificial intelligence impacts on cover letter signal value. The evidence from Cui, Dias and Ye (2025) demonstrates dramatic reductions in the correlation between cover letter quality and hiring outcomes following artificial intelligence availability. These findings have profound implications for the continued use of cover letters as selection tools.
Signalling theory predicts that signals lose value when they become easily fakeable or when signal production no longer requires the underlying quality ostensibly being signalled (Spence, 1973). Artificial intelligence cover letter generation precisely creates these conditions. When applicants can produce sophisticated, tailored cover letters through seconds of artificial intelligence interaction, the documents no longer credibly signal effort, communication ability, or genuine interest. The finding that employers responded by shifting evaluation weight toward harder-to-fake signals confirms this theoretical prediction and suggests practical recognition that cover letters have lost informational utility.
The technological transformation occurs within a broader context of artificial intelligence disruption across hiring processes. Resume screening algorithms, automated interview analysis, and predictive analytics increasingly mediate employer-applicant interactions (Raghavan et al., 2020). Understanding how artificial intelligence affects specific selection components like cover letters contributes to broader knowledge about technology-mediated hiring and its implications for fairness and efficiency.
Barriers, bias, and equity implications
The third objective examined cover letters as barriers and bias sources. The evidence documents multiple pathways through which cover letter requirements disadvantage candidates from marginalised groups. Direct discrimination, as demonstrated in disability disclosure studies, represents the most explicitly concerning mechanism (Ameri et al., 2015). Implicit bias triggered by demographic cues within application materials offers a subtler but potentially equally consequential pathway. Structural disadvantages in access to cover letter preparation resources create inequalities that appear individual whilst reflecting systemic factors.
These findings raise fundamental questions about the ethical defensibility of cover letter requirements, particularly when such requirements cannot be justified through demonstrated validity. Selection methods that fail to predict job performance whilst creating discriminatory barriers arguably violate principles of procedural justice that should govern hiring practices. The British Equality Act 2010 requires that selection criteria be justified as proportionate means of achieving legitimate aims, a standard that current evidence suggests cover letters may struggle to meet.
The equity implications extend to organisational diversity objectives. If cover letter requirements systematically filter out qualified candidates from underrepresented groups, organisations undermining their stated commitments to inclusive hiring. The appearance of meritocratic selection through standardised application requirements may mask reproduction of existing inequalities through culturally loaded evaluation criteria.
Implications for practice
The fourth objective sought evidence-based recommendations for organisational practice. The synthesis supports several conclusions relevant to hiring decision-makers. First, organisations should critically evaluate whether cover letter requirements serve demonstrable selection purposes or merely persist through institutional tradition. Second, where cover letters continue to be used, structured evaluation criteria and trained assessors may partially mitigate inconsistency and bias. Third, organisations should consider alternative selection methods with stronger validity evidence, including structured application forms, work samples, and standardised interviews. Fourth, awareness of artificial intelligence impacts should inform realistic expectations about cover letter informational value in contemporary contexts.
Implementation of these recommendations faces practical challenges. Hiring managers and human resource professionals may hold strong beliefs about cover letter utility based on anecdotal experience rather than systematic evidence. Organisational processes and applicant tracking systems may be configured around traditional application requirements. Candidates themselves may expect cover letter opportunities to demonstrate their qualifications. Nevertheless, evidence-based practice requires willingness to revise procedures when research indicates limitations or harms.
Conclusions
This dissertation has examined the predictive validity of cover letters for job performance and their function as potential barriers to entry in contemporary recruitment. Through synthesis of peer-reviewed empirical literature, the analysis addressed four specific objectives and generated findings with significant implications for research and practice.
Regarding the first objective, the evidence consistently demonstrates that cover letters exhibit weak predictive validity for job performance. Correlations rarely exceed r = 0.10, and cover letters provide minimal incremental prediction beyond information available from other application components. This finding challenges assumptions underlying widespread cover letter requirements and suggests that alternative selection methods offer superior predictive utility.
Addressing the second objective, evidence from large-scale platform data indicates that artificial intelligence availability has substantially eroded the signal value of cover letters. Reductions of 50 to 79 per cent in correlations between cover letter quality and hiring outcomes demonstrate that technological change has fundamentally altered the information economics of application materials. Cover letters can no longer credibly signal effort or ability when artificial intelligence enables effortless production of sophisticated documents.
Concerning the third objective, the literature documents multiple mechanisms through which cover letter requirements create barriers and introduce bias. Discrimination against applicants with disabilities, structural disadvantages for candidates from less privileged backgrounds, and implicit bias triggered by demographic cues all contribute to inequitable filtering of applicant pools. These effects are particularly concerning given the limited validity evidence that might otherwise justify such barriers.
The fourth objective sought practical recommendations based on synthesised evidence. Organisations should critically evaluate the purposes served by cover letter requirements, consider structured alternatives with superior validity, and recognise the diminished informational value of cover letters in the age of artificial intelligence. Implementation of evidence-based selection practices serves both organisational interests in effective hiring and broader societal interests in equitable access to employment opportunities.
This dissertation contributes to scholarly understanding by integrating previously disparate literatures on selection validity, technological disruption, and hiring discrimination. Future research should examine longitudinal changes in cover letter practices as artificial intelligence tools become increasingly prevalent, investigate employer beliefs and decision processes underlying persistent cover letter requirements, and develop and validate alternative selection methods that achieve both predictive validity and equity objectives. Additional investigation into cultural and national variations in cover letter practices would extend understanding beyond the predominantly Western contexts examined in existing research.
The significance of these findings extends beyond academic interest to practical consequences for millions of job seekers and the organisations that seek to hire them. Selection methods shape labour market outcomes with profound implications for individual livelihoods and social mobility. When evidence indicates that particular methods lack validity and create discriminatory barriers, the case for reform becomes compelling. Cover letters, once assumed essential to effective hiring, warrant reconsideration in light of accumulated evidence questioning their predictive value and documenting their exclusionary effects.
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