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The Effects Of Easy And Hard General Knowledge Questions On The ...


The effects of easy and hard general knowledge questions on the overconfidence effect The overconfidence phenomenon relates to the observation that judgments of probability of accuracy exceed objective probabilities. This tends to occur for hard item samples not easy (the hard-easy effect). Theoretically there is much debate over the explanations of this phenomenon. Using a questionnaire based on the ‘Who Wants to be a Millionaire Bumper Quiz book,' this experiment attempted to replicate these results for hard and easy questions. A significant difference was found between the overconfidence effects on hard and easy questions. However, alone there was no effect of confidence for the hard items. Methodological issues are discussed and the results related to current theoretical perspectives.

Are we as smart as we think we are? Classical research into the Overconfidence Phenomenon would suggest that we are not. The overconfidence phenomenon refers to the observation that judgements of probability tend to be greater than the objective probabilities. In other words, the mean subjective probability or confidence rating () assigned to the correctness of answers (e.g. answers to general knowledge questions) often exceeds the mean percentage of correct answers () (e.g. - > 0). A typical example of research demonstrating this phenomenon was done by Fischhoff et al (1977). They demonstrated that the participants judged their accuracy on questions with two possible options to be 100%, when in fact their accuracy was between 70 and 80%. It is this overestimated judged accuracy that is termed overconfidence. They also noted that the participants confidence decreased when their accuracy exceeded 80%. This phenomenon is termed the Hard-Easy Effect and refers to the covariation between under- and overconfidence and task difficulty. Commonly, overconfidence is observed for hard item samples and underconfidence is observed for easy item samples (Juslin, 2000).
The validity of this phenomenon has clear significance not only for psychology but fields such as finance and economics as well as general decision-making in every day life. For example, Kahneman and Tversky (1996) point out that decisions, such as whether or not to buy a particular stock or to have a medical surgery, depend on beliefs regarding single events, which are tapped into by those measuring overconfidence. The relevance of this topic has motivated researchers to investigate the psychological underpinnings of the phenomenon. Until recently overconfidence has been an accepted part of human psychology (Soll, 1996), however, this research has lead to what is a currently ongoing debate regarding the potential causes and even the reliable existence of the overconfidence phenomenon.
Juslin (2000) points out that the overconfidence phenomenon has inspired explanations involving cognitive or information processing biases.

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