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China's Population Can Be Both A Hard Power Resource And A Burden. Its ...


China's population can be both a hard power resource and a burden. Its current population of 1.3 billion is expected to continue to rise until 2030 when it will peak at 1.5 billion before going into decline. A population of such a size is of course a huge resource in terms of manpower, yet a huge burden on the domestic economy and from a domestic security point of view and massive number of people over which to maintain effective control. Western states continue to lobby the Chinese government for greater democratisation, yet the fear of anarchy from a more liberalised system would appear to be keeping the leadership committed to an authoritarian regime.
From a realist perspective, it is the combination of economic and military power of China that will ultimately lead to conflict with the US. The build up of such hard resources will be seen as a threat by the US regardless of any ‘good neighbour' policies that Chinese diplomats may point to. Realists within the US policy making sphere will argue that China is merely biding its time until its economy is strong enough to provide a basis for future hegemony. Thucydides argument that the belief in the inevitability of conflict can be the cause of war is appropriate here if both sides believe they will eventually end up in conflict, the military build up will continue, economic cooperation will fade away, and conflict will become unavoidable. China will eventually have to seek further power in order
Certainly, as the Chinese economy continues to grow, it is likely that its military power will increase. For example, early in 2005, it announced a 12.6 per cent increase in defence spending (Nye, Daily Times March 27, 2005), something that makes it appear more dangerous to its neighbours and further complicating US military commitments in Asia. A RAND study has projected that China's military expenditure will be more than six times higher than Japans by 2015 and accumulated military capital stock at around five times higher (Daily Times, March 27, 2005), again something that suggests it is looking to achieve regional hegemony before aiming its sights higher and looking for global hegemony.
Whilst a global military challenge to the US in the short term is unlikely, there is certainly a possibility that China could challenge the US in East Asia, or even more probably over Taiwan. China would almost certainly intervene militarily if Taiwan were ever to declare independence, irrespective of the military or economic cost. No Chinese leader can afford to be seen as the one that lost Taiwan permanently and at present, the West's main concern about the Chinese military rests around possible action in Taiwan.
China's perception of US strategic aims is also an important factor, particularly set against the theory that two nations that believe in the inevitability of war will eventually come into conflict.

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